[20081119]CICC Macroeconomy Weekly - "Global Recession and 8% Chinese E

Pls see attached the full PDF research report, below is a highlight:

Highlights:
¨                                                                                       Many “firsts” for the Chinese economy suggest an acceleration of the economic downturn and much tougher challenges ahead than those in 1998.
¨                                                                                       Corporate profits face a hard landing.
¨                                                                                       On November 10, the Chinese government announced an Rmb4trn economic stimulus program. We think this is necessary and within expectations, but that it should have been introduced earlier.
¨                                                                                       The Chinese economy will likely reach 8% GDP growth in 2009. Following further recent deterioration of domestic and international economic leading indicators, we lower our 2009 organic GDP growth forecast to 6%. We estimate that the fiscal stimulus program may boost growth by 2ppt, actual GDP growth will likely make 8%, but we think 1H09 economic performance may be worse than in 2H09 since the boost from many of the projects included in the stimulus plan may not materialize until the second half of the year.