[20081113]Retail Sales Growth Remains Stronger Than Expected

The continued strength of China's retail sales is a further indication that whilst the Chinese economy is slowing, it is not slowing as fast as the consensus believes. Retail sales grew at 22% in October, down slightly from September's 23.2% growth and July's peak growth of 23.3%. This time last year retail sales were growing at 18.1.%.
 
In real terms retail sales growth has slowed even less fast and October's 17.3% growth is only marginally down from September's peak 17.7%. October's figure remains above the third-quarter average growth of 17%.
 
Coupled with a rebound in sedan sales in October, from -2.3% in September to 12.3% in October, these numbers suggest that consumer confidence is holding up despite deteriorating conditions worldwide. China's consumer confidence fell in September to 93.4% from 93.7% in August. The October number is not yet out.
 
Tom Gurney
Research-Works