Themes of the quarter:
* Real GDP growth came in at 11.5% for 3Q2007 and CPI inflation at 6.2% for September page 3
Inflation in China—Getting into the perilous zone page 5
Inflation and Chinese policymakers’ dilemma page 8
More liquidity tightening measures implemented to suppress inflation page 11
* Assessing the impact of a potential US slowdown on China page 12
Decoupling—Why do we believe this time would be different? page 17
* Early thoughts on the 17th Communist Party Congress (CPC) and the near-term macro outlook page 21
A brief review of China's 17th Party Congress page 22
Policy issues:
The PBOC raised benchmark interest rates twice as well as the RRR twice in the quarter page 24
The PBOC’s 2Q monetary policy report highlights concerns on headline inflation page 25
China’s SAFE announced permission for overseas equity investment by individual investors page 26
First installment of Rmb600 billion Special Treasury Bonds issued to the PBOC today page 27
China MOF to auction Rmb200 billion Special Treasury Bonds before the year end page 28
Long-term thematic issues:
Introducing the Goldman Sachs China Commodity Index page 29
Currency appreciation and shifts in relative prices and profits page 37
Charting China page 40

<<3Q2007 China Economics Quarterly Final.pdf>>

3q2007_china_economics_quarterly_final.pdf (1.1 MB)

谢谢