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标题: [20081113]Agricultral production export tax removed and its impact to the sec [打印本页]

作者: yangruoxin 时间: 2008-11-13 14:40 标题: [20081113]Agricultral production export tax removed and its impact to the sec

Our conclusion: the move indicates strengthening policy support for grain farmers and aims to keep raw grain prices high in the coming two years, but would play only a limited role in pushing up domestic raw grain prices.

Some points of the four domestic demand boosting measures adopted in a State Council executive meeting presided over by Premier Wen
The meeting decided to remove export tariffs on some of steel, chemical products and grains, reduce export tariffs on some of fertilizers and adjust the way of taxation, and impose or raise export tariffs on some products.

Our comments:
1)        The removing of the provisional tariffs (which would have expired by the end of this year) is a policy measure aiming to deepen the protection on the interests of domestic grain farmers and support the domestic raw grain prices staying high over 2009~10. To make up for the damages to the interests of grain farmers caused by price-capping measures taken to tame inflation, and to avoid the disuse of more arable land, the government has previously unveiled several incentive policies, including an addition to the list of agricultural products enjoying the minimum purchase price protection in 2009 (adding corn and soybean) and an increase in the 2009 minimum purchase prices for rice, corn, soybean and wheat.
2)        The reason for the Chinese government to remove export tax rebates and moreover, to impose a 5~25% provisional export tariff on raw grains in 2008 is to stabilize domestic prices. However, against the ongoing backdrop of the international raw grain prices having fallen sharply while the domestic prices remaining firm, the domestic prices of raw grains (rice, corn, soybean and wheat) have been 20~50% higher than in the US, making the imposing of provisional tariffs on raw grain exports meaningless.
3)        Even if the international prices of agricultural products have dropped 30~50% in 2H08, their current prices remain too high compared to industrial raw materials whose prices have fallen to levels of early 2006, and thus still have a downside potential. Therefore the removing of the provisional export tariffs or a possible restoration of the export tax rebates (a 13% rebate rate) in the future would play only a limited role in pushing up domestic raw grain prices. On the other hand, the government may raise import tariffs on raw grains in order to keep the domestic prices at high levels in the next two years, or to not cut the minimum purchase prices for 2010.

结论：强化对原粮种植户的政策扶植，保持未来两年原粮价格维持在高位，但对推高国内原粮价格的作用不会很明显。

温家宝主持常务会议研究扩大内需的四项实施措施中的内容摘要
根据国内生产消费及国际市场变化，会议同时决定，取消部分钢材、化工品和粮食的出口关税，降低部分化肥出口关税并调整征税方式，对个别产品开征或提高出口关税。

我们的分析
4)        暂定关税的取消（今年年底本来也将到期），是对扶植国内原粮种植户利益的深化，是对09、10年国内大宗原粮价格维持高位的政策支持。为弥补通胀时期打压大宗原料价格而对种植户利益造成的损害以及避免耕地进一步撂荒，此前已出台的扶植政策包括增加09年执行最低收购价的农产品品种（增加了玉米和大豆）并上调09年大宗原粮（大米、玉米、大豆和小麦）最低收购价。
5)        08年中国取消原粮出口退税并征收5-25%暂定关税的目的在于平抑国内物价，而在如今国际大宗原粮价格已大幅回落且国内价格依然坚挺的背景下，国内大宗原粮价格（大米、玉米、大豆和小麦）已比美国高出20-50%，征收原粮出口暂定关税已失去意义。
6)        即使今年下半年国际大宗农产品价格跌了30-50%，但相比于大宗工业原料价格已普遍回落到06年年初水平，大宗农产品现今的价格依然偏高，仍有继续下行的压力。所以，即使取消出口暂定关税或者未来又重新实施增值税零税率政策（出口退税率13%），对推高国内原粮价格的作用也不会很明显。但预计为了达到在未来两年维持大宗原粮价格在高位的目的，或者说为了不下调2010年大宗原粮最低收购价，在关税方面，国家还有可能提高原粮进口关税。

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