[20081112]Shipping stocks today rose against the overall market, which is dri

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Shipping stocks today rose against the overall market, which is driven by the following two factors, in our opinion:
 
1. The downtrend in BDI has been much milder and we believe a moderate recovery could be expected on the ground that we have noted previously. The market may have such expectation too;
 
2. COSCO said in a statement today that its 10 executives bought a total of 464,000 company shares for about Rmb2.55mn over the past three trading sessions. This indicates their optimism about the company’s long-term prospects and their conviction that the current share price has been significantly undervalued, as the annual total share sales by executives are capped at 1/4 of their holdings as of the end of the previous year.
 
We believe that:
1. On a two- to three-year horizon, the dry bulk shipping market still follows a downward trend and the recovery, if any, should be limited. Therefore we still suggest investors to stay clear of stocks with strong cyclicality, including COSCO, CSC Nanjing Petroleum Transport and China Merchants Energy Shipping.
 
2. For CSD and COSCO Shipping with weak cyclicality, we also reiterate our previous call. Since BDI is expected to average at only 2,000~3,000 points next year, both the two companies have a further 20~30% downside in their 2009 earnings estimates, given the unfavorable industry trends. However, the two companies are unlikely to suffer a loss and investors may consider accumulating them if they are oversold (to 1x P/B, for example).
 
 
 
今日航运股逆势上扬，我们认为有两点因素：
 
1、BDI在800多点上虽然下跌，但是跌势已经明显减弱，我们认为会有小幅反弹，理由在之前已经说过，不再赘述。可能市场也有这样的预期；
 
2、中远航运今日公告：公司10位高管一起在过去三天在二级市场买入公司46.4万股股票，约合人民币255万元（见附件）。由于高管买入股票后，每年最多只能卖出上年余额的1/4，因此高管此举相当于表明了对公司长期前景的看好和目前股价长期处于低估位置的决心。
 
我们认为：
1、如果从2-3年角度来看，干散货市场仍是向下趋势，近期即使反弹也将幅度有限，因此对于强周期的股票，包括中国远洋、长航油运和招商轮船，目前仍建议回避。
 
2、对于弱周期的中海发展和中远航运，我们也维持之前观点，由于明年的BDI预期平均值仅为2000-3000点，因此这两家09年盈利存在20-30％的进一步下调空间，行业趋势不利于公司。不过这两家公司的业绩亏损可能性较小，因此若出现超跌（比如到1倍市净率附近）可以考虑增持。