[20081120] Internet : Ctrip.com (CTRP.US) - "Slowdown into 2009"
Key Points:
◆ 3Q top line is at the low end of company guidance. Hotel booking business saw stagnant volumes and flat commission. The air ticketing business saw a sharp decline in commission per ticket due to ticket price cuts, but volume growth remained pretty strong. Package tours maintained healthy growth.
◆ 4Q could be the worst quarter in growth rate terms. 2009 will still be slow but may pick up a little due to the recovery of commission per ticker due to oil price cuts.
◆ The long term consolidating story is still convincing, and this industry downturn may bring chance to gain more market share.
◆ Our 2008 EPS forecast is US$0.96 and our 2009 forecast is US$1.09. Our target price is US$21.74, representing 20x 2009 forward looking P/E. Maintain HOLD.
 ctripctrp_081119mn - slowdown into 2009 (us).rar (122.13 KB)
|
发表于 2008-11-20 10:32
|