[20081125]2009年香港中资股投资策

【内容摘要】：The doom and gloom in stock market may be overdone. A margin of safety has emerged. The index has folded into a negative growth of 26% for 2009. Our bottom-up TRIPLE-C index composition indicated, even in the worst scenario, earning growth for 2009 would be around -13.5%. Accordingly, we believe the market is over-pessimistic. In addition, indicators such as valuation level, the spread between dividend yield and one-year T-bill, share repurchase, and the price gap between A and H-share all pointed up the value of long-term investment. Further deteriorations in liquidity seem unlikely. Capitals may return to Hong Kong market in 2009. Hong Kong listed China Concept stocks may experience a 40% rise in 2009, based on our estimates.nThe doom and gloom in stock market may be overdone. A margin of safety has emerged. The index has folded into a negative growth of 26% for 2009. Our bottom-up TRIPLE-C index composition indicated, even in the worst scenario, earning growth for 2009 would be around -13.5%. Accordingly, we believe the market is over-pessimistic. In addition, indicators such as valuation level, the spread between dividend yield and one-year T-bill, share repurchase, and the price gap between A and H-share all pointed up the value of long-term investment. Further deteriorations in liquidity seem unlikely. Capitals may return to Hong Kong market in 2009. Hong Kong listed China Concept stocks may experience a 40% rise in 2009, based on our estimates.
nProperty sector will be the biggest surprise: The blowout of China’s economic troika made the property sector the only lifeline. China’s property sector is stranded with the situation that no demand increases unless price sags. However, once property price fall, profitability of land developers will be substantially squeezed, which, in turn, will depress their desire for future construction investment. In that sense, the augment in trading volume merely represents house inventory absorption, rather than additional investment. Nevertheless, inventory housing consumption has little pull-up effects on China’s economy. This ushers in a second predicament: how to invigorate land developers in property downturn? There is only one solution, which is the authorities transfer profit to land developers by virtue of administrative measures. Reviewing what happened in the Shenzhen property market, we realize a 30% fall in housing price will effectively scale up the trading volume. Assume five interest rate cuts ahead and tax deduction and exemption in the offing, if land developers slash current house prices by additional 10%, property price will drop by 30% in real terms. And this 10% price cut will not necessarily hurt land developers’ investment enthusiasm.
nProspective index path and sector selection in 2009. We continue to be positive to index performance in 2009, and expect a 40% rise in Hong Kong listed China Concept stocks. As for sector selection, we suggest to overweight property, electronics & appliance, engineering machinery, non-ferrous metal, steels, and retailing, and to underweight banking, electric power, coal, apparel & textile, hardware & software, and automobile.
l市场太过悲观，目前安全边界已显: 市场隐含了26%的09年业绩负增长，而我们对TRIPLE-C指数自下而上的合成表明，最悲观的情形下，TRIPLE-C指数09年的业绩增长为-13.5%，所以市场盲目悲观了。而当前的估值、息率和替代投资的利差、回购、A-H价差等指标都显示目前的估值具备长期投资价值。流动性也似乎到了最坏的时候，2009年资金回流香港的可能性很大。09年香港中资概念股有40%的涨幅。
l房地产会成为最大的惊喜: 中国经济的三架马车同时熄火，我们觉得唯一的希望就在房地产。房地产的第一困境就是：要想量增，除非价跌。但是一旦价格大幅下跌，房地产商的利润受到极大挤压，他未来投资的欲望也会大大减少，所以即使房地产的交易量放大，也是存量的消化，而非新增投资。而这种存量的消化对中国的经济并没有太大的拉动作用。所以房地产的第二个困境是：如果在价格大幅下跌的过程中保持房地产商的开发热情？答案只有一个：国家通过调控手段，向房地产商转移利润。从深圳的经验看，房价下跌30%，交易量能有效放大。如果到09年底降息五次，如果通过税费减免，在当前的价位上，房地产商只要再降价10%，就能达到购买者实际房价负担下降30%的效果。而这10%的降价不会导致房地产商的投资热情有所下降。
2009年指数路径和行业选择: 09年我们对指数依然乐观，中资股有40%的涨幅。而行业选择上，我们超配房地产、电子电器、工程机械、有色、钢铁和零售。低配银行、电力、煤炭、纺织服装、软件和硬件、汽车